“Will anything survive in roughly its current form? Probably. Experience that isn’t solely information: comedy, entertainment, storytelling, fiction, etc. You don’t ask an AI to summarize a stand-up special, and a synopsis of a great novel is not a great novel. Voice, taste, and personality may end up being the only durable moats. But “give me the 5 steps to X”? That’s a tough business that’s about to get a lot tougher.” – Tim Ferriss.
This is a very interesting read. Interesting even more so as I’ve been going through a phase of negative capability. Many ideas which all feel right no matter which way you turn, even though many may lead to failure, but one could produce a successful outcome. And it’s that trying to figure out which door is best to go through when there are several you are blind to seeing what’s behind and any could take many years of your learning all before only discovering it’s a dead end.
It’s when each way to turn ‘feels right now’ but many ways may lead to failure yet one could possibly produce a better outcome for your future and your life. And that’s a difficult scenario because the future is always unpredictable, yet we are going through a time where it seems a little predictable. And what I mean by that is in regards to the age of artificial intelligence. So what we do, what you choose to do, in this moment, seems to matter far more now than ever.
Deciding what to do with the next 5-10 years of your life is always going to be a major decision, which you should never just take lightly anyway. However, the problem we have here now is something that is unlike any problem we have ever experienced before. It isn’t the first time a new technology has been massively disruptive, but in regards to many peoples safety nets, it absolutely is.
And the problem with having feelings of certainty especially when it comes to matters of particularly uncertain times, is that it’s important to consider how certain one can feel about their own delusion. Because many times people run towards their idea only to discover that there was no there even there. So while it is within one’s own ability to create inner success, if the desire is strong to create external success, and the wish is to turn nothing into something, whilst an extraordinary achievement, you need to remind yourself that even though you can feel sure of yourself, confident in your ambition, depending on faith alone for success is a recipe for failure.
You can work, and work very hard at it, even for many years, all before making the discovery at the end that you were never able to hit the target you aimed for. That’s hard. This is where passion alone can be held responsible again for your own inevitable death.
So it is wise to spend a lot of or even a long time thinking critically before making any major life changing decisions that will occupy the next years to a decade of your life’s focus and attention. The one thing you can’t afford to do is to always get it wrong. It’s okay to fail at the start in order to learn but you have to figure out how this is realistically going to add up to something useful. There are many things you need to consider before pressing ahead with whatever project you choose. And that will very much depend also on what you expect to achieve as the outcome. There are an endless amount of things you can do, so if you have an ability to learn anything, you need to ask yourself:
What do you actually want to achieve and why?
What does a better future even look like?
And if you can do that, how can you actually do it?
I’ve been struggling with a problem recently as it coincides with this dilemma: in the new world of emerging artificial intelligence, if our goal is to learn in order that we may teach, but artificial intelligence is much smarter and even does a better job teaching others to the point where others no longer turn to people for the answers, or books, and are happier with the machines information, bypassing and therefore never in need of any nonfiction writing ever again, then nonfiction writing, just like the Sony Walkman, CD’s then DVD’s, could now be at risk of becoming obsolete. Well, not for everyone. But possibly for far more than there used to be. At least the trend is pointing in that direction.
When bestselling authors who produce perennial bestsellers produce their sales statements highlighting this downturn, it is wise to pay attention.
But, not in order to give up, but to consider making a pivot right now and shifting to an alternative strategy.
Books have been around for thousands of years, helping us, teaching us, inspiring us, changing us, making us better. But as each new technology has emerged over the past half century much of it has turned into cruft through each iteration phase and upgrade. And with our latest upgrade to artificial intelligence, and a major publisher update now, could artificial intelligence turn nonfiction into cruft?
One thing possible is the fact that that doesn’t seem to be impossible.
WHAT WOULD YOU ‘REALLY’ WANT TO DO IF YOU KNEW YOU COULDN’T FAIL?
That question will have had different answers to many people in the past that if answered now today in the same way knowing to be true what is, would therefore have to consider other possible answers to that given the current climate results and projected future trends, if the trend continues.
And it does seem likely that it will.
So after trying to figure out a better way to solve the best problem, the way to begin that process was by reframing that question and deciding to answer it from a perspective that considers the current pattern of disruption to continue, therefore thinking up a better question to ask in order that the answer may lead to a better problem, given that “voice, taste, and personality may end up being the only durable moats” made me think:
WHAT IS THE ONE AND ONLY THING YOU COULD MAKE THAT NO ONE ELSE COULD EVER CREATE?
Focusing on that as the main question, trying to figure out the best answer to that. If you are only ever to make one thing, and that one thing has not been made by anyone else before, and no one else could ever create it but you, what is the answer to that question?
THE DEFINITION OF WHAT IT MEANS TO BE ORIGINAL
It must have contained inside of it then the contents of your own imagination, mixed with experience, and it has to be something that is new and different that is able to connect and resonate with another human being. And consider that if there is anything else that already exists like it, then render the idea as useless and continue the creative process until you discover what that totally original idea is.
What happens when you choose to focus on making something that is truly original and making something that can only be made once by you that has not been done before and there is nothing else like it and it could not be replicated by anyone after?
Could you instead take what you do but turn it in a different direction?
AI DOESN’T KNOW HOW TO BE TRULY ORIGINAL [BUT WE DO]
So that might in fact be what your one and only shot should be. It has to be something only you can do. Not something that is like something else. Not something the computer knows how to replicate. It has to be something that a computer doesn’t understand and can’t make sense of it.
These are not easy questions for the simple fact that the answers should also not be easy. If that were the case then everyone would be able to make an original. So you need time away to really think about that problem. And even when you finally feel sure you know what that best answer to that problem is, you’ve then got an even bigger problem: spending the next 5-10 years of your life working on it to discover if it was the right thing to do.
The worst problem is that you’ll simply never know either way no matter what anyway. So you might as well chance your arm at being wildly original than risking being more noise in a crowd.
What’s the highest peak you could aim for, if done right once, you wouldn’t need to aim ever again?
In other words, what would be the most beneficial way to spend the rest of your life trying to achieve, and why?